Where to for Global Markets & Strategic Asset Allocation | Q&A with Jason Coggins
In a world where financial markets are increasingly shaped by geopolitics, fiscal divergence, and rapidly evolving investor behaviour, York Wealth Management is committed to helping clients navigate complexity with confidence.
In today’s ROCast, Murdoch is joined by Jason Coggins, Investment Committee Chair of the Hayson & Huang Family Office; Initium Capital. Jason boasts over 20 years of extensive expertise in the finance industry, previously guiding the investment research team at Koda Capital and apart of ANZ’s Global Wealth Chief Investment Office. He excels in understanding clients’ unique needs, preferences, and goals, leveraging top investment ideas from both domestic and international markets.
This edition of the podcast takes the form of a Q&A conversation, incorporating interaction from many of Yorks clientele in a live forum to access the best insights and perspectives from one of the sharpest minds in the industry.
Redrawing the Global Investment Map: Regionalisation, Not Reversal
One of the first major topics discussed was the narrative around globalisation. In response to questions about whether globalisation is in retreat, Jason provided a nuanced and clarifying perspective. Rather than characterising the present environment as one of “de-globalisation,” he described it as a transition toward regionalisation - a reconfiguration of global supply chains that reflects shifting geopolitical priorities.
In particular, Jason dissected the re-emergence of protectionist trade policy in the United States, particularly under President Trump. He likened Trump’s style of negotiation to a strategic bluff - often inflammatory in tone but designed to compel foreign governments to re-engage at the negotiation table. Citing the example of tariff threats, Jason explained that when the Trump administration first announced trade restrictions, more than twenty countries immediately sought to renegotiate their terms of access to U.S. markets.
Jason made clear that this phenomenon is not a collapse of global trade but a recalibration, with supply chains being rerouted to regional hubs, such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. This restructuring, however, comes at a cost. Rebuilding supply chains closer to home is inflationary by nature due to increased production and logistical expenses.
The key takeaway here is that investors must account for this inflationary shift and its long-term implications - not just on macroeconomic policy, but also on corporate margins and global asset allocation decisions.
As Jason summarised:
“It’s not globalisation in reverse - it’s a move from one integrated supply chain to multiple regional ones. That restructuring is inflationary, and it’s sticky.”
Revisiting Europe: The Value That Investors Forgot
The discussion then turned to Europe - a region often perceived by Australian investors as slow-growing, over-regulated, and fiscally constrained. Jason challenged that view head-on. He noted that the post-GFC stigma attached to European markets is increasingly outdated. Countries once associated with fiscal irresponsibility - namely Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain - have since implemented structural reforms that are now bearing fruit. Jason particularly highlighted Spain and Greece, which are now challenging Australia's growth.
Jason was particularly bullish on Germany, whose recent shift from fiscal conservatism to large-scale public investment marks a turning point in European macroeconomics. The German government is now pursuing infrastructure and defence spending with unprecedented vigour, all while maintaining one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios among developed economies.
“Germany is now spending at a scale not seen since the post-war period. Yet they still remain one of the least geared developed economies. That gives them enormous capacity to stimulate responsibly.”
Importantly, Jason believes that while European markets have seen recent rallies, valuations remain attractive on a relative basis, particularly when compared to stretched U.S. multiples. He encouraged investors to revisit their allocations and consider Europe not through the lens of the past, but through its current trajectory of reform, coordination, and fiscal investment.
U.S. Equities: Time to Rethink the Bias
While acknowledging the U.S. remains the world’s dominant market, Jason expressed concern over valuation levels in large-cap U.S. equities. He noted that index investing and passive flows have created significant concentration risk - with mega-cap tech companies constitute approximately 25% of the S&P 500 Index and significantly distort valuation metrics, trading at historically high at 30-50x earnings multiples.
Jason also pointed out that these companies are now contending with a new source of competitive pressure: the rapid rise of artificial intelligence development in China, particularly through companies like ‘DeepSeek’. This development, he argued, has eroded the perceived dominance of U.S. tech and heightened the risk for investors paying premium prices.
“You’re paying 30 to 50 times earnings for businesses with no margin for error. With AI competition emerging, and policy risk rising, the reward simply doesn’t match the risk.”
He emphasised a shift away from U.S. mega-cap dominance toward a more diversified, bottom-up approach - one that includes overlooked opportunities in small- and mid-cap sectors, both in the U.S. and abroad.
Australia: Reform Stagnation and the Small-Cap Edge
When asked about the domestic outlook, Jason’s views were more tempered. He acknowledged Australia’s strong demographic fundamentals - particularly population growth - but expressed concern over the persistent lack of productivity reform.
Australia’s largest companies, he argued, have largely benefited from structural superannuation inflows rather than genuine earnings growth or innovation, artificially inflating valuations despite consistent declines in underlying earnings (down approximately 8% cumulatively from 2022–2025).
However, the small- and mid-cap segments of the market - and the private business ecosystem more broadly - remain fertile ground for investors willing to look beyond index incumbents & disconnected from superannuation-driven market distortion.
“Our top 20 companies don’t excite me. But our entrepreneurs, our researchers, our smaller firms — they punch well above their weight.”
Private Credit: The Quiet Winner of the Next Cycle
Perhaps the most compelling part of the session was Jason’s deep conviction in Australian private credit as a cornerstone asset class in a changing yield environment. While global credit markets are large and relatively mature, Australia’s private credit market remains underdeveloped - a fact that creates inefficiencies and, by extension, opportunities.
Jason noted that private credit in Australia is typically secured against real assets - property, infrastructure, or enterprise value - and is structured conservatively.
“Despite all the media noise, the fundamentals are strong. There’s been no spike in defaults, no deterioration in underwriting standards. The market was tested by COVID and rising rates - and it held.”
He also pointed out two major structural drivers:
- First, that banks have retreated from many forms of commercial lending, creating space for private lenders and
- Second, that ageing investors are seeking stable, income-generating alternatives to bonds or equities.
“We have strong creditor rights here. When things go wrong, good lenders fix them quickly. That’s not the case in the U.S., where Chapter 11 drags out value destruction for years.”
Approximately 80% of local private credit is asset-backed, predominantly bridge financing (6–24-month terms), significantly mitigating default risk. Australia enjoys globally leading creditor rights protections (as per the Australian Corporations Act 2001 and the Personal Property Securities Act 2009).
Jason remains confident that the private credit market will continue to grow - not just in scale, but in importance within diversified portfolios.
Zoning Reforms and the Property Re-Rating
The conversation also turned local — to NSW zoning reform. Jason described recent policy changes as “the most significant housing reform in decades.” Through the state’s Transport-Oriented Development (TOD) strategy, properties within 200 to 400 metres of train stations and bus interchanges can now be significantly redeveloped - often without council approval.
This reform is tied closely to Sydney’s expanding Metro network and the forward-implied curve anticipating RBA rate cuts of 100–125 basis points by early 2026, Jason forecasted significant property revaluation, especially around strategically located transit corridors.
“We’re finally seeing supply-side policy that matches our population trajectory. This isn’t about the quarter-acre dream — it’s about building density around billion-dollar transit investments.”
The implication for investors is clear: real estate linked to transit hubs stands to benefit not just from valuation uplift, but from fundamental demand.
Alternatives- Resources & Royalties:
Jason spoke passionately about royalty-based investments - particularly in the mining, pharmaceutical, and intellectual property sectors. Unlike equity or debt, royalty interests provide exposure to the revenue of an asset without bearing operational or capital risk.
“You’re not betting on execution. You’re clipping the ticket. That’s efficient, repeatable income — and it’s uncorrelated to traditional markets.”
This low-volatility income stream is increasingly being used by institutional allocators to reduce portfolio beta and diversify cash flow sources.
Digital Assets: From Fringe to Framework
On digital assets, Jason candidly admitted that he was once sceptical. But he now concedes that the space has matured, with regulated ETFs, institutional custody solutions, and structured yield products bringing legitimacy to the asset class.
“I didn’t understand Bitcoin early — and I was wrong. The infrastructure has improved, the product design has matured. That said, I still question its resilience in moments of real crisis.”
While not ready to endorse heavy allocations, Jason acknowledged the potential for crypto to serve as a complement - not a replacement - within well-designed portfolios.
Closing Thoughts: Pragmatism Over Panic
Jason closed the session with a note of pragmatic optimism. While markets remain volatile, he urged investors to resist reactionary shifts. Instead, portfolios should evolve slowly and strategically - with an emphasis on diversification, liquidity, and selective opportunity.
“Don’t panic at every headline. Don’t move everything into cash. Be measured. Have liquidity. And when the opportunity presents itself — be ready to act.”
Where to from Here?
At York Wealth, we believe in clarity through conversation. This forum was the first in a series of regular sessions designed to provide our clients with access to leading minds and live, unfiltered market insight. well be doing these quarterly, if you’d like to be a part of the next one and gain your own personal insights, contact us accordingly.
Written by,
Murdoch Gatti
Private Wealth Manager | MComm Fin
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Murdoch Gatti at York Wealth Management Pty Ltd ABN 46 605 610 679 is a Corporate Authorised Representative 001007972 of AD Advisory Services Pty Ltd AFSL No. 237058; Financial Adviser Authorised Representative Number 001007979.
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