When the World Demands Energy: Supply May Be the Real Constraint
Insights from Todd Warren, Tribeca Investment Partners
In this episode of The Rate of Change, Murdoch Gatti sits down with Todd Warren, Portfolio Manager & Head of Research at Tribeca Investment Partners, to unpack a shift taking place across global commodity markets — and why the real story may not be demand, but supply.
If you are interested in uranium, oil, natural gas, LNG, copper, sulphur, lithium, rare earths, iron ore, coal, hydrogen, carbon markets, nuclear energy, titanium, advanced materials and broader strategic minerals, then you will enjoy this conversation.
Over the past decade, commodities have been under-owned, underinvested and largely ignored as capital flowed into growth assets. ESG constraints and weak pricing reduced investment across energy and mining, limiting new supply.
That dynamic may now be reversing.
The System May Be Tighter Than It Appears
As Todd explains, this may be a different type of cycle — one defined less by demand strength, and more by constrained supply, geopolitical fragmentation and persistent inflation.
Markets are still largely pricing commodities as cyclical.
However, the constraint may now sit within the system itself.
A key insight from the conversation is the fragility of global supply chains.
Critical inputs — including sulphur, essential for copper processing — are heavily reliant on global chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions here may not just impact oil, but could cascade through copper, fertilisers and broader industrial supply chains.
In copper specifically, it is not just the availability of ore that matters.
It is the availability of inputs required to process it.
This introduces a second layer of supply constraint that may not be fully reflected in pricing.
Exposure to this system sits with diversified producers such as BHP.ASX – BHP Group and RIO.ASX – Rio Tinto, both of which are not only producers of copper but also participants in the broader supply and processing ecosystem.
The discussion also extended to how value may be unlocked through alternative structures, including streaming arrangements involving WPM.NYSE – Wheaton Precious Metals, where by-product exposure can be monetised separately.
Energy as the Base Layer
Energy underpins the entire resource system — from extraction through to processing and transport.
If energy remains constrained, it may flow through all other commodities.
This is reflected across exposures such as:
WDS.ASX – Woodside Energy
STO.ASX – Santos
TBN.ASX – Tamboran Resources (CDI)
BTL.ASX – Beetaloo Energy Australia
OMA.ASX – Omega Oil & Gas
1605.TYO – Inpex
Woodside was not framed simply as an oil and gas exposure.
The discussion highlighted the underappreciated infrastructure value embedded within the business, particularly as Louisiana LNG is developed. This positions Woodside as a long-duration export platform with strategic infrastructure characteristics, rather than purely a commodity price exposure.
Santos was discussed as a leveraged exposure to both LNG exports and domestic gas markets, providing diversified energy exposure within a constrained supply environment.
Tamboran Resources and Beetaloo Energy Australia were framed through the lens of basin-level optionality. The Beetaloo Basin itself was not discussed as a single-company outcome, but as a regional system requiring coordinated development across multiple operators, infrastructure investment and capital alignment.
The conversation explicitly referenced the need for multi-party participation, including players such as Inpex, and broader infrastructure development across the region, including locations such as Daly Waters and Sheffield, reinforcing that value may sit at the system level rather than within any one company.
Omega Oil & Gas was highlighted as a differentiated gas exposure, focused on the Taroom Trough in Queensland. Its relative proximity to existing coal seam gas infrastructure and LNG export pathways via Gladstone may provide an advantage in development timelines and capital efficiency compared to more remote basins.
Inpex was referenced within this broader system context, reinforcing the importance of infrastructure, coordination and regional development in unlocking supply.
Uranium: A Structural Repricing?
Uranium may be one of the clearest examples of a supply-constrained market.
Following years of underinvestment post-Fukushima, supply was effectively removed from the system.
Demand is now returning through:
Nuclear re-adoption
Energy security
Decarbonisation
However, the discussion went further.
Uranium was also linked to:
AI-related power demand
Data centres
Hyperscalers
Off-grid power solutions
This introduces a new layer of structural demand, where nuclear energy may provide reliable, scalable baseload power for high-density computing infrastructure.
Relevant exposures include:
PDN.ASX – Paladin Energy
BOE.ASX – Boss Energy
CCO.TSX – Cameco
NXE.TSX – NexGen Energy
Utilities were discussed as potentially under-contracted, suggesting that contracting cycles may still be in early stages.
This may represent a multi-year structural imbalance, rather than a short-term price cycle.
Rare Earths and Strategic Minerals
Rare earths were framed less as a geological opportunity and more as a supply chain and processing problem.
China continues to dominate refining capacity, which shifts the focus from resource ownership to control of processing infrastructure.
Relevant exposures include:
LYC.ASX – Lynas Rare Earths
ILU.ASX – Iluka Resources
BRE.ASX – Brazilian Rare Earths
MEI.ASX – Meteoric Resources
VMM.ASX – Viridis Mining and Minerals
MP.NYSE – MP Materials
A key nuance in the discussion was that MP Materials may effectively operate with policy support, including potential pricing floors for non-Chinese supply. This suggests that rare earth markets may become increasingly policy-driven and strategic, rather than purely spot-priced.
The conversation also broadened to include strategic minerals such as:
Gallium
Germanium
Tungsten
These materials were discussed in the context of:
Defence systems
Smart weapons
Advanced manufacturing
This reinforces the idea that certain commodities may increasingly be driven by geopolitical and strategic demand, rather than traditional industrial demand alone.
Lithium: Structural Demand, Cyclical Supply
Lithium remains supported by electrification demand.
However, unlike uranium, supply may respond more quickly, introducing shorter-term volatility and more pronounced price cycles.
Example exposure:
PLS.ASX – Pilbara Minerals
This highlights an important distinction across the commodity complex.
Not all commodities behave the same.
Lithium may remain structurally relevant, but tactically volatile.
Coal: Still Part of the System
Coal was not presented as a primary investment thesis.
However, it remains relevant within the broader system.
The discussion highlighted that:
Baseload power remains necessary
Governments continue to extend coal plant lifespans
The energy transition may be more complex and extended than commonly assumed
This reinforces the idea that the global energy system may not transition as quickly or cleanly as often expected.
Processing and Advanced Materials
A key theme throughout the conversation was that the next constraint may not sit in resource extraction.
It may sit in processing.
This includes:
Refining capacity
Chemical inputs
Advanced manufacturing
Relevant exposures include:
IPX.ASX – IperionX
6KA.ASX – 6K Additives (CDI)
IperionX focuses on low-carbon titanium production, while 6K Additives utilises scrap-to-powder technology.
These companies represent exposure to material efficiency, processing innovation and advanced manufacturing capability.
The implication is that control of processing may become as important as ownership of the underlying resource.
Alternative Exposure Through Structure
Commodity exposure is not limited to producers.
Royalty and streaming structures may provide alternative access to commodity price exposure.
Example:
WPM.NYSE – Wheaton Precious Metals
The discussion referenced transactions involving BHP and Wheaton, highlighting how producers can monetise by-product streams and embedded value within assets.
This creates alternative capital pathways and different risk-return profiles for investors.
Currency and Macro Overlay
The discussion also highlighted the role of currency.
A weaker US dollar environment may provide:
Support for commodity prices
Improved conditions for resource equities
This is particularly relevant for Australian investors, where currency dynamics may amplify returns.
Tribeca’s Approach
Tribeca’s Global Natural Resources Strategy reflects this framework.
The strategy invests across:
Energy
Metals and mining
Carbon
Using a flexible long/short approach across equities, credit and commodities.
The strategy has historically targeted 15–20% per annum returns, while the listed vehicle:
TGF.ASX – Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited
returned approximately 60% in calendar year 2025.
Tribeca’s broader platform includes:
Nuclear Energy Opportunities Fund
2050 Strategy
Asian Infrastructure Fund
Asian Credit Fund
This reflects a broader view that opportunities may exist not just in commodities, but across the entire resource and infrastructure system.
Where the Discussion Went Deeper
Not so much the headline commodities, but some of the more differentiated second-order insights Todd was actually making.
Woodside was not just an oil and gas mention.
The point was the underappreciated infrastructure value, particularly Louisiana LNG.Omega was more than a name-drop.
Taroom Trough exposure may offer infrastructure advantages.Beetaloo was discussed as a regional build-out.
System-level, not stock-level outcome.Rare earths were not just “China dominates.”
Policy pricing and strategic positioning may matter.Strategic minerals expanded beyond rare earths.
Gallium, germanium and tungsten in defence context.Copper was not just a demand story.
Sulphur and processing constraints add a second layer.Uranium linked to hyperscalers and AI.
Power demand is evolving.Coal remains relevant.
Baseload reality vs transition narrative.Royalties and streaming matter.
Alternative structures unlock value.Currency matters.
USD cycles influence commodity performance.Tribeca platform breadth matters.
Exposure goes beyond a single fund.
York’s View
We would frame this conversation as a shift in how commodities are understood.
This may not be a resource shortage problem.
It may be a supply, processing and capital allocation problem.
Across multiple markets, constraints appear to sit in:
Development timelines
Processing capability
Infrastructure
Supply chain concentration
If correct, commodities may move from tactical allocations to structural components within portfolios.
Final Thought
The question may not be whether the world has enough resources.
It may be whether the system can:
produce them
process them
and move them
at the scale required.
If you would like to discuss how resources may fit within your portfolio as part of a broader asset allocation, feel free to get in touch.
Written by
Murdoch Gatti
Private Wealth Manager | MComm Fin
mgatti@ywm.com.au
0450 003 135
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